Cannabis taxes will drive consumers back to unlicensed channels

Common sense, anecdotal conversations and third party reports tell us that the unlicensed pot industry is growing and will always be larger than the licensed industry. One report in September 2019 estimated that the unlicensed industry in California is three times larger than the licensed industry. In other states the unlicensed industry approaches 100% of the market.

My own rough calculations put the illegal pot industry at 0.1% to 1.5% of a state’s overall economy. In locally depressed areas like where I live, the economic impact could well be larger.

Regulation, taxation and licensing issues are all significant reasons. Taxes are the largest driver of the unlicensed market and will remain so over the long term. Tougher state laws and increased enforcement will have minimal effect on changing the overall market trend.

Motley Fool writes:

“The first concern is the taxation of recreational marijuana sales which, as noted, should represent a clear majority of global revenue in the decade to come. California, the fifth largest economy in the world by gross domestic product, has imposed a 15% excise tax, a cultivation tax on growers of $9.25 per ounce of cannabis flower, or $2.75 per ounce of cannabis leaves, and state and local taxes. Add this up, and some locales could be paying as much as 45% in aggregate tax on adult-use cannabis, which could wind up sending legal consumers back to illicit channels.

Remember, black market marijuana growers don’t have to wait for cultivation and processing licenses or sales permits. They also won’t be paying state income tax, federal income tax, or the cultivation and excise taxes imposed in the state. Illicit weed will easily undercut the Golden State’s legal pot industry on price, and first-year tax revenue collection figures show this to be true. Having originally expected $643 million in full-year 2018 sales following the sale of adult-use weed in dispensaries, actual collection totaled just $345.2 million last year. If U.S. states or foreign markets fail to tax cannabis appropriately, it could seriously reduce the industry’s potential.

California’s problems are of particular concern to Origin House (OTC:ORHOF), which has bet big on being a distribution kingpin in the state. Origin House has been gobbling up some of the smaller pot distributors in California, thereby nabbing the few distribution licenses outstanding. But if consumers aren’t actively staying within legal channels, then rampant oversupply and reduced demand could sap Origin House’s potential, at least over the next couple of years.”

The unlicensed industry is likely already worth billions of dollars. Every participant, even home growers, shares significant tax risk and legal risk. Those risks should to be considered for their impact on other financial planning objectives. Yet most with risk exposure don’t seek help beyond a criminal attorney when the need arises.

The most common questions I am asked on how to tackle this messy issue: Are discussions with an accountant protected in the event of a legal procedure? Can “above the table” activities be protected from risks of “under the table” activities? What’s my “worst case exposure? Can my spouse and family be financially protected?

All of these topics should be carefully addressed in our early and ongoing work.

Looking past decriminalization

20191117_140520000_iOSThis coming week our federal legislature will take up a bill to decriminalize cannabis. Most states, including ours, are attempting similar measures. But my form’s focus isn’t on these proceedings. In fact, we have little confidence in the near term outcome. That timeline really doesn’t matter in the big picture.

What we know is that eventually cannabis will be decriminalized. What then? That will be a beginning, not an end to huge numbers of civil prosecutions of growers, sellers and their supporters. Many entrepreneurs will make mistakes that will cost them small fortunes in payments to the government. My firm is specifically focused on representing the tens of thousands of local entrepreneurs who will face civil tax prosecutions and business license penalty cases to follow that will require an adviser to offer tax expertise, representation before authorities and large picture financial coaching for recovery.

Some call the situation “Prohibition 2.0”. Others see it quite differently. See my short video “Eight Inconvenient Truths About the Cannabis Industry (that nobody is talking about)” for discussion on the current situation.

The news coming from California gives us some insight in what will come here on the east coast. Cannabis is already decriminalized in California. Yet government prosecutions are on the rise. Now it’s all about collecting the money. Approximately 85% of the entire industry remains unlicensed and untaxed. The risk of raids on growers’ events like farmers markets, arrests for selling without a license, and tax prosecutions are a part of daily life for more than a million people in that state alone. The cost of those prosecutions will be devastating to many. Yet it isn’t the end of the world*.

My work focuses on dealing with these post-decriminalization issues that leaves millions exposed to new types of business and financial problems. I’ve always been useful in representing those accused of violating government rules.

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*I don’t mean to belittle the several tragic cases starting with cannabis and ending in suicide or police shootings. Rather, I’m focused on the majority of civil prosecution cases that will be life-altering but not insurmountable.